July 17, 1998
COALITION DEBATES COMPUTER GLITCH
By: Adam Eventov
Staff Writer
Pasadena - Crashing computers could cripple commerce on Jan. 1, 2000, according to area business officials.
Possible widespread computer failure is possible when machines confuse Jan. 1, 2000, with Jan. 1, 1900, because programs only use two digits for the year they say.
Affecting almost every aspect of business - from supply and production control to sales and liability - companies must address the problem as soon as possible, according to speakers at Thursday's Technolink Association luncheon in Pasadena. Technolink is a coalition of the public and private sector that promotes technology-based businesses.
"We are entirely reliant on computers and suddenly things are going to shift but no one knows how much," said John O'Malley, lawyer with one of the luncheon's sponsors, Fulbright & Jaworski.
Damage to business could range from little or no effect at all to a full-scale recession, O'Malley said, but put one estimate as a $1 trillion shock to the economy felt almost immediately if systems crash.
He said the Year 2000 problem could affect company telecommunications and create an avalanche of litigation as parties fight over who is responsible for fixing the software, the damage from faulty software and whether insurance covers any losses.
The potential litigation has even spurred Rep. David Dreier, R-Covina, to introduce legislation on Thursday that limited liability of companies that meet targets for addressing the problem.
Dreier's proposal comes two days after President Clinton and Vice President Gore made an appeal Tuesday in a joint appearance at the National Academy of Sciences, saying that the computer glitch should be a priority for every company's executives.
And the problem is not limited to computers, explained software developer Wade Kirkpatrick. Speaking to nearly 100 business representatives and government officials, Kirkpatrick said the problem could play havoc with anything that has a microchip, including traffic signals, home alarm systems and coffee makers.
"It is simple to expand the two-digit date to a four-digit field but the problem is that dates interact with other parts of the computer system such as reports, the database and in some cases the hardware itself," said Kirkpatrick.
Even Internet service provider EarthLink Network is concerned. Despite having new equipment that is able to handle the Year 2000 problem, other systems like the microchips in the air conditioning used to keep its computers cool are causing concern, said Grayson Hoberg, EarthLink's chief financial officer.
June 1, 1998
FUTURISTIC FORUM
Conference puts fast-changing world of telecommunications into perspective
By: Adam Eventov
Staff Writer
Imagine sitting at a boardroom table, discussing some issue with co-workers. They look and sound like they are at the table with you but are actually hundreds of miles away and you are actually at a holographic teleconference.
The concept of three-dimensional images may not be as far-fetched as it sounds. Engineers at Jet Propulsion Laboratory expect to complete a prototype panel that creates three-dimensional images by the end of the year.
Eventually, the images will be refined so they can be viewed from several angles and have an image quality approaching high definition television.
Three-dimensional images were just one of many innovations and issues discussed at the recent Futurist Conference in Los Angeles - organized in part by the TECHNOLINK Association, a coalition of business, political and academic leaders that encourages the development of technology-related businesses.
Among the topics at the conference were Internet legislation and taxation, and the integration of new technologies in the social services provided by cities. Also covered were the business strategies of technology-based businesses and how to integrate advances in telecommunications in all parts of product development.
John C. Peterson of JPL explained that in order for the La Canada Flintridge-based space center to build a smaller, less expensive spacecraft quicker, it is working with subcontractors through computer modeling to create new designs.
"Our focus is on a virtual platform on which we can build and design, said Peterson, explaining that Internet conferencing allows the laboratory to collaborate on component design, adjusting specifications as the design evolves and reducing manufacturing costs.
For Grayson L. Hoberg of EarthLink Network Inc., changes in telecommunications are forcing the business model to evolve. The chief financial officer of the Pasadena-based Internet service provider said adaptability will be the key for success among technology-driven companies.
Grayson said EarthLink looks for partnerships with other companies to fill its needs in the rapidly changing Internet world. By forming partnerships, the company limits capital outlay while avoiding markets where it has no expertise.
And it is hard to be an expert in a world of technology that is changing nearly every six months. As technical innovations increase the amount and speed in which information moves, there seems to be a convergence in the way information is transmitted.
According to Robert Kniskern, president of electronics design firm Adaptive MircroWare, Inc., combinations of cable television, Internet and telephones will be transmitted to homes over different wires. As the amount of information increases, the importance of any one type of service decreases.
Kniskern joined other industry leaders in predicting telephone services will be wrapped into other services, citing that information will be metered like any other utility.
"The transportation of bits (the 1s and 0s that are the basic blocks of digital information) will be like buying electricity where consumers will pay for the amount of bits they use," Kniskern said. "It will be up to the consumer as to how they use it."
Some of those options for using bits will be the digital transmission of the much talked about High Definition Television that will provide high resolution television by the end of the year.
Another innovation is the release of satellite telephones by AirTouch Satellite Services. Able to use traditional land-based cellular transmitters, the new wireless telephones also will be able to send and receive calls through a new system of 48 satellites expected to be in place by the end of the year and in service by 1999.
Unlike old satellite telephones that required a small suitcase full of electronics, the new wireless units are the size of a large cellular telephone but with a one-inch diameter, eight-inch long antenna. The new telephones will cost between $1,200 and $1,600 and can be used in remote areas or regions of the world that use different transmission standards.
With all this information being transmitted faster and cheaper, either through important land lines or updated satellites, the way we see this information displayed is also changing.
"We are still viewing output of wonderful technologies on clunky old devices," said Edward Pope, found of FPD Technologies, a flat-panel display start-up company.
If Pope's new company can meet his expectations, it will produce flat panel displays for $10 billion a year market with-in three years. The flat-panel displays will replace traditional monitors and existing flat displays (most commonly found in portable computers) with brighter units that require less energy and are less expensive to manufacture.
Along with all this information technology comes privacy issues, taxation, antitrust laws and human costs.
Addressing legislative concerns, U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif, said that a slow-moving Congress was the least prepared to make decisions about the rapidly changing world of technology.
"When my colleagues hear the word mouse, a furry creature comes to mind," said the congresswoman, who represents much of the Silicon Valley.
Lofgren said that technology actually may rectify the issues it raises, such as coming up with screening devices to control unwanted e-mail or Spam. She believes legislators may best focus their efforts on creating educational programs so that no one is left behind.